While I wait to see whether Game 6 is a washout tonight (fight on, Sox!), I've been toying with the New York Times' wonderful Presidental Calculator, an hour-stealing Flash graphic that allows you manipulate swing states and create different Electoral College scenarios for Bush or Kerry victories. As a secret aficionado of alternative history, I've been enjoying this tremendously.
Or at least I was, until I puttered my way into a chilling scenario. Did you realize that Bush and Kerry could actually tie? And it's not a terribly far-fetched possibility. All that would need to happen is for the election to follow the same results of 2000, only with Kerry stealing away Colorado. That's it. Just Colorado. And then they're tied at 269 electoral votes apiece. The same thing could happen is Kerry took just one of Colorado's votes (the state is one of the few that can split) and then stole Nevada. Tied, again.
I have no bloody idea what happens when the Electoral College is deadlocked. I can't imagine that it's good, though. Just thought I'd toss bit of trivia out there, and help all you partisans lose a couple hours of sleep...
Posted by mesh at October 19, 2004 06:42 PM | TrackBackA tie in the electoral college would be broken by a Senate vote. I think.
Posted by: Tommy Jolly at October 19, 2004 07:40 PMActually, it goes to the House of Representatives in case of a tie. I was secretely hoping that would happen in 2000, because it's more interesting than the Supreme Court getting involved. In any case, an electoral college tie would result in a win for Bush, since the House is controlled by the Republicans.
Posted by: kathryn at October 19, 2004 07:48 PMmesh, saw i heart huckabees. so good , you'll love love love it.
i have one word "inevitable" - wow. i love a game where this is possible.
i agree with anna, and who knew mark wahlberg was so flippin funny?
in response: i would lose my job if i got a blog. i'll send you some dark laughter with mind bullets.
Posted by: jes at October 20, 2004 10:46 AMan even simpler scenario for a tie is this: of the swing states that the nytimes leaves gray, if Kerry gets OR, MN, IA, and OH while Bush gets NV, WI, CO, and NM we have another tie. Crazy. But even crazier than a tie, are the legal battles that have already started (see today's WashPost).
Posted by: justin at October 20, 2004 10:49 AMI think it's unlikely. Check out the futures market's predictions. You can find the market's expected probability of both Bush winning, as well as the market's expected probability of Bush winning each state. Barring unforeseen (or maybe they are foreseen) manipulations of voting or outcries of conspiracy to suppress voter intentions, I think it's likely Bush will get the electoral votes needed to win.
Posted by: scott cunningham at October 20, 2004 11:46 AMI think they should have to fight it out with cattle prods.
Posted by: gosey at October 20, 2004 04:21 PM